Retaining your EU / UK connection

The Potential Impact of Brexit

An Irishman, a Scotsman and an Englishman walk out of a bar after the Brexit decision has been announced.  (Yes it was 8am,  but all of these stereotypes apparently have some form of drinking problem)

 

The Irishman is no longer the punchline  ...

The Irishman speaks English,  has spent the last few years recovering from economic hardship because of the 2008 financial crash.  Ireland has attracted a lot of high revenue companies and talent back to the island over the last few years.  

For any company that NEEDS to maintain a stable relationship with the EU;  Ireland offers certainty of that connection.  Setting up a small operational branch in Ireland is relatively straightforward.  

As Ireland has access to the EU,  it also has access to attract international talent without any issues of trade tariffs or complicated visa processes and the uncertainty that Brexit has created.  

The main difference that Ireland has to the UK … is the Euro 

If you can get over the challenges of dealing with multiple currencies - having a base in Ireland will allow you to retain an uninterrupted connection to the EU - it may be worth setting up a satellite office in Ireland and considering it for your European Headquarters. 

This will give your company a consistent European presence and flights from the rest of the UK to Ireland are extremely affordable .. travel to and from Ireland is actually cheaper than most UK long distance train fares with enough planning.

Government support exists for companies seriously investigating the move - giving the consideration a strong endorsement.  

Pros :
Ireland will retain connection to the EU
There is an available talent poolInternational hiring is easier
Funding and Tax relief is available 

Cons :
The business entity will be trading in the Euro
Relocation of businessRyanair flights aren’t always the nicest
Health Insurance for Employees

 

The Scotsman is in the mood to negotiate

A majority of the Scots decided that they wanted to remain in the EU,  and are now strongly considering breaking away from the UK in order to be able to do so.   Those who had previously voted to stay as part of the UK in the original 2014 #indyref are now more in favour to leave the UK.  Nicola Sturgeon has emerged as the only leader willing to continue to push a remain agenda. 

With a second independence referendum on the horizon (#indy2),  there are a lot of interesting options that Scotland is pursuing on an international and local level.  Nicola Sturgeon will be fighting constantly for a good deal for Scotland,  reassuring it’s citizens and pushing for the best deal for it’s people.

With these regions DEPENDANT on EU funding for the local innovation and business development infrastructure - it will be interesting to see how Scotland negotiates.

Scotland has a chance of becoming an independent country with an independent relationship with the EU;  whilst potentially retaining a sterling linked currency.  Scotland being the only EU member with a sterling linked currency could see it having a unique international position.

However - this would likely be happening in years rather than months.

Timing wise this would all start post Article 50 and pre Brexit;  However a rather bullish Englishman could stop this from becoming a reality - and the chances are … they will be making it as hard as possible for this to be a realistic outcome.

Scotland is an option for companies that are looking to take a gamble whilst remaining in the UK;  As a country it has an extremely strong education system,  a workforce with a reasonable level of satisfaction. 

Pros
Investment into Education
Diverse Talent Pool for Knowledge Based Businesses
Potentially retaining connection to the EU

Cons
No immediate resolution to EU risk
Scotland will be fighting for independence

 

The Englishman has a lot of challenges ahead of him

With just under half the country voting remain,  and just above half voting to leave;  
The English and Welsh now have to move forward with working out how to ‘Brexit’ with a potentially reluctant Scotland in tow - who have a good chance of going it alone within the next year. 

With Scotland fighting for independence;  both major british political parties suffering from internal battles and a hesitation to activating Article 50.  The UK has a lot on it’s plate before it even gets to the exit in Brexit.

Whilst the UK is in the EU - it will find that making individual deals with countries difficult without breaking EU rules and regulations (incurring penalties and fines) - It will be discouraged from talking to other countries about post brexit opportunities by the EU until article 50 is triggered as this will weaken both sides negotiation points.

Although in the long term;  the UK is able to start making independent decisions away from Europe.
The years between stability are likely to be tough and will see large numbers experience further deepened austerity.  

Sign up to Xpand Access and find out the latest news about which options benefit your company the best.
Protect your business,  look at the realistic opportunities for your business and decide if you want to take action.  

The pound is likely to have a swing in stability before it gets strong against the dollar or euro.
There will be a number of factors which will cause the price of international trade to vary greatly. 

Dates to be aware of
Date that Article 50 strategy is announced
EU response to Article 50 dates
When Article 50 actually happens
Scottish Referendum Announcement
Scottish Referendum
A UK general election announcement
A UK general election
When the departure date is announced
When the departure happens

Pros
Potential international opportunities in a few years
Continued connection to the pound and sterling
Potentially having a ‘new’ European relationship

Cons
Support infrastructure is quickly vanishing
Prepare for a lot of austerity
Political turbulance
No more direct and easy EU connection

Last modified onFriday, 29 July 2016 11:02
James Gumble

Founder of Xpand Access

Website: www.xpandaccess.com

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